Former President Trump maintains his slight advantage in Fox News’ latest Power Rankings, which put Trump at 251 Electoral College votes to President Biden’s 241.
Predictions continue to see the race coming down to four states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
Four other states, including Michigan, Minnesota, Georgia and North Carolina, are also very competitive.
But there is one change in one state that could prove critical to Trump’s victory.
Polls show a close and even race
Trump leads Biden by one point in latest Fox News survey; a result well within the margin of error.
The best performing polls since the last forecast show the same result: a lead of one or two points, for either Biden or Trump, within the margin of error of each poll.
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It’s too early to say whether Trump’s conviction in a criminal trial for falsifying business records will have an impact on this race, although a poll conducted by Marist the week before the verdict suggests it will not.
Trump is leading in battleground states, and particularly in the closest Sun Belt states (Arizona, Georgia and Nevada), by mid-to-high single-digit margins.
The race is tighter in the Rust Belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), where Trump’s lead is typically one or two points.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is still a wild card in this race. He received support from 17 percent of registered voters in a Marquette poll two weeks ago.
He has roughly equal support from both sides in most polls, although Republican voters tend to view him more favorably.
Why Trump could win
Trump’s continued progress is good news for the former president’s campaign.
He made significant inroads with traditionally Democratic groups; particularly young, Hispanic and black voters.
Like the new Tracking Fox News Power Rankings Issues As voters are revealing today, Trump is the right man to handle the economy and the borders, two of the top three issues in this election. Voters also say Trump is more mentally and physically fit to take on the job.
Biden has a more modest advantage on abortion policy, and voters say he is more honest than Trump.
Biden’s policy problems are unlikely to go away before November: Prices are much higher under his administration, many illegal immigrants will enter the country, and it will continue to age.
And while Democrats say voters are “just waking up” to this election, this is the first rematch in 70 years. Voters know these candidates and what they stand for very well.
Why Biden Could Win
On election night, the only calculations that matter are the race to the 270 Electoral College votes.
In an election with no surprises in other states, Biden can retain the presidency by retaining Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
There is also reason to think that support for Biden among young and minority voters could strengthen as November approaches.
As Fox News poll analysis recently showed, “in April 2020, Biden was at 66% among Blacks and 52% among Hispanics. He ultimately won both groups by much larger percentages, 91% and 63%, respectively, according to the November 2020 Fox Poll News Voter Analysis. “
How close elections are also depends on turnout.
Biden enjoys strong support from educated voters, who are a very reliable voting group, and he leads on abortion.
Not only is this issue seen as one of the top deciding issues in the latest Fox survey, but it is very likely to appear separately on the ballot in Arizona, which this forecast considers a toss-up state.
Nebraska’s 2nd District Could Be Key to Trump’s Victory
Biden can win for another four years if he keeps the Rust Belt states and there are no other surprises.
What would a surprise look like?
The most likely candidate is Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
If Biden keeps Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and all the other states he won in the 2020 election, the incumbent president will win 270 Electoral College votes. This is the minimum number of votes required to win the election.
One of the votes making up those 270 is from Nebraska’s 2nd District.
(Maine and Nebraska are the only states to award college electoral votes to both the winner of the statewide vote and the winner of the same vote, but separated by congressional district.)
If Trump wins this district, then it will be a tied race with 269 electoral college votes each.
Ties are resolved in the United States House of Representatives, where each state gets one vote. If Republicans control a majority of seats in a state, then a Republican member will vote for that state.
Assuming the Electoral College votes in accordance with the results, Republicans do not suffer massive losses in the House in the next election, and the elector in every Republican-led state supports Trump, then he would be the likely winner of a tie in the electoral college. .
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Nebraska’s 2nd District has voted for two Democratic and two Republican presidents in the last four elections:
- In 2020, Biden won with 51.95% to Trump’s 45.45%.
- In 2016, Trump won with 47.16% to Clinton’s 44.92%.
- In 2012, Romney won with 52.85% to Obama’s 45.70%.
- In 2008, Obama won with 49.97% to McCain’s 48.75%.
Omaha and its suburbs make up a significant portion of the district’s population, and that city has a disproportionately high percentage of college-educated people, making the district the most Biden-friendly territory in a heavily Republican state.
Both parties are keeping an eye on this part of the state and this forecast calls for them to invest heavily there as November approaches.
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Nebraska moves from Probable D to Lean D in this forecast.